Steel exports are expected to shrink by 10%-15%
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- Time of issue:2020-11-03
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(Summary description) The new crown epidemic continues to spread globally, which will undoubtedly have an impact on my country's steel exports, which in turn will affect steel demand.
Steel exports are expected to shrink by 10%-15%
(Summary description) The new crown epidemic continues to spread globally, which will undoubtedly have an impact on my country's steel exports, which in turn will affect steel demand.
- Categories:Company News
- Author:
- Origin:
- Time of issue:2020-11-03
- Views:0
The new crown epidemic continues to spread globally, which will undoubtedly have an impact on my country's steel exports, which in turn will affect steel demand.
Calculated by crude steel caliber, in 2019, my country's net export of crude steel 52.29 million tons, accounting for 5.2% of the annual output. From the perspective of major export categories, my country's steel exports are dominated by plates. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in 2019, a total of 38.48 million tons of steel plates were exported in China, accounting for up to 60% of steel exports. In addition, bars account for 15%, pipes account for 14%, and angle profiles account for 5%. Breaking down the plate exports, the plates with larger exports are mainly coated plates (32%), medium-thick and wide steel strips (23%), coated plates (17%) and medium plates (14%). In terms of regional distribution, my country's steel exports mainly flow to Southeast Asia and Africa, with a large proportion going to South Korea, while Europe, America and Oceania account for only 10%.
Comparing the production and export data in 2019, the export volume of crude steel caliber steel accounts for about 7% of the total output. The largest export volume of plate, its export accounted for 10.9%. Among them, hot-rolled coil, as a kind of plate, accounts for about 3.8% of exports; rebar exports account for a relatively low rate of only 2.1%. Obviously, the impact of overseas epidemic fermentation on the demand for hot coil, cold coil and other plates is significantly greater than that of construction steel such as rebar.
Although the proportion of direct steel exports is not large, and exports to Europe and the United States and other regions with rapid epidemic development are relatively small, we need to consider the indirect steel exports corresponding to the export of steel products.
To sort out the data of the General Administration of Customs, steel products can be classified into four categories: machinery and equipment, home appliances, automobiles, ships and containers, and summarize their respective export volumes in 2019. After that, combined with the comprehensive consideration of the domestic production and market size of the four types of commodities in 2019, the export proportions of these four types of steel products can be calculated separately. Among them, the shipping and container industries account for a very large proportion of exports, accounting for 94.5%. The subsequent new orders are bound to be affected by the overseas epidemic, but the response may be lagging behind. In addition, the proportion of home appliances exports is not small, and nearly 40% of export demand may be affected. Relatively speaking, the export proportion of the automobile industry is small, only about 5%; the export proportion of machinery and equipment is about 13%, which is not a high proportion. If it is subdivided into construction machinery, the proportion of exports will increase slightly to 16 %.
After obtaining the export proportions of the four types of steel products, the weighted average of the weights of these four types of steel products in the total steel consumption can be used to estimate the proportion of indirect steel exports formed. About 19.3%. This proportion is obviously much higher than that of direct steel exports. In addition, compared with steel exports, the export targets of my country's steel products are more scattered, and the proportion of exports to Europe and the United States has also increased. For example, rolling bearings in mechanical equipment, the proportion of exports to Europe and the United States in 2019 is close to 30%. It can be seen that the overseas epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has intensified, and the impact on indirect steel exports is more worthy of vigilance.
After estimating the proportion of indirect steel exports, combined with the proportion of direct exports to further evaluate the overall proportion of my country's steel exports/production. Steel products accounted for about 36.5% of the entire downstream consumption of steel, most of which still flowed to the domestic construction industry. Taking into account the 6.9% direct export ratio of steel, it can be weighted to estimate that the overall export proportion of the entire steel industry is about 13.9%.
According to the impact time of two or three quarters and a 20% decline in production, the continued fermentation of overseas epidemics will affect my country’s steel industry exports (including direct and indirect exports) to 10%—15 %. Combined with the previous data that the comprehensive export volume of steel accounts for about 13.9% of the total output, the impact on my country's total steel demand is expected to be 1.3%-2.1%, which means that the construction industry needs to achieve an additional growth of 3.6% to fully hedge The negative impact of exports. Therefore, although hot-rolled coils and other plates have fallen to the cost line, in the medium and long term, the trend of plate prices is still not optimistic.
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